Bank of America's 34 billion?
Bank Of America (BAC)
has been surging the last few days, up 56% the last 5 days, despite
leaked information from the Federal Government Stress Test results.
Even though the leaked details of BAC's capital needs seem ludicrously
high, the number could have been a lot worse. Analysts have been on
BAC's high horse, upgrading the stock, despite the need for $34Billion
in capital! And here's why.
Despite the fact that $34Billion
seems high, you've got to remember this is Wall Street thinking. The
same Wall Street thinking that applauded a government move to secure
defaults on over $300Billion in debt of Citigroup (C).
Both banks have been surging lately as Investors jump back into an
industry that was decimated by the credit crunch losses and prolonged
recession.
For Bank Of America, and several other banks
requiring more capital, the easiest thing to do would be to convert
preferred shares into common equity. In BAC's case, doing so would add
approximately $28Billion in capital, according to an analyst from
Morgan Stanley. The comprehensive analyst report from Morgan's Betsy
Graseck details other potential asset sales that would raise the
remainder of the required capital. All in all, a situation for BAC,
that looks much brighter compared to several weeks ago. It was very
recently that Goldman Sachs (GS) made a splash by raising $5Billion in a stock offering, in order to use the money to repay the government's TARP funds.
Ken
Lewis having his role of Chairman and CEO separated has given
shareholders a new life, and recent gains certainly helped cement
realistic rebound expectations. All this, despite the the financial
sector still on what can be described as slightly thicker ice.
What
Investors are still most weary of is government control of the
financial sector, and despite the new Administrations repeated denials
of Nationalization the potential of having the US government as the
largest shareholder of several major banks will do nothing to quell the
argument.
For now though, When the Stress Test results are made
public investors will await word of what exactly Bank Of America will
do to raise capital. Till then, what $34Billion?